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Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India

Foreign Affairs Documentation Bulletin

Ministry of External Affairs Library
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Foreign Affairs Documentation Bulletin
(March - April 2015)

AFGHANISTAN        
LIBERAL DEMOCRACY        
                        
1.    Gaan, Narottam
        Youth Bulge: Constraining and Reshaping Transition to Liberal Democracy in Afghanistan

        India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs 71(1), March,2015: 16-36

With the end of Cold War the relative dominance of the military–political notion of security plummeted reflecting the widespread recognition of the sources of security being diversified away from the centre stage, that is, the state. In recent years what have catapulted into the centre stage of both policy and strategic thinking are the environmental apocalypse, poverty, economic decline and other social crisis of identity, drug and human trafficking and politics of racism, minority, human rights and feminist indignation and population age structure brushing aside the political–military construct of security hovered around state and its apparatus to the fringe. Out of all these non-traditional security threats population age structure stands preeminent in view of its impact on stability and liberal democratic character of a state. The very word people is no longer a homogenous term. If the number of youths of a particular age group surpasses the other age groups in a nation it has serious implications on its security, and political stability. This is termed as ‘youth bulge’ which can turn into violence and civil war in case of failure of the state in providing them jobs, education and economic sustenance. This article explains how youth bulge in Afghanistan can greatly affect its transition to liberal democracy in the context of American withdrawal from Afghanistan and failure of the government to address the socio-economic challenges the people face in the society. When state fails as a constitutional and institutional device to meet all these challenges, slipping into the hands of Taliban which provides better economic prospects can become a fait accompli. Then the devil is easily identified in the demography. The stranglehold of America on Taliban seems to be waning with its decision to withdraw and involvement of Taliban in the peace talk. This will aggravate the situation further in Afghanistan as its youth bulge is very much disenchanted with the existing socio-economic landscape casting a shadow over its stability and transition to democracy.

***1. Afghanistan-Liberal democracy 2. Afghanistan-Youth insurgency
    42159

ASIA        
      -PACIFIC-SECURITY STRATEGY        
                        
2.    Emmers, Ralf and Teo, Sarah
        Regional security strategies of middle powers in the Asia-Pacific

        International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 15(2), May, 2015: 16-36

This paper seeks to enrich understandings of middle-power security strategies by examining countries that lack great-power capabilities but still aim to influence the regional security environment. Based on a literature review highlighting the functional and behavioral approaches of middle power diplomacy, we note that these elements could also apply to their regional security strategies. The paper focuses on regional security strategy as a subset of foreign policy and asks why some middle powers appear to go for a regional security strategy that is more functional while others adopt a strategy that is more behavioral. It argues that this divergence derives primarily from differences in resource availability and strategic environment. An analysis of Indonesia, South Korea, Australia and Vietnam highlights how each of these middle powers has adopted a particular regional security strategy, driven by their resource availability and strategic environment.

***1. Asia-Pacific-security strategy 2. Middle Power-Security strategy 3. Middle Power-Foreign policy
42157

BELARUS        
      -POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT        
                                       
3.    Nikolayenko, Olena
        Youth Movements and Elections in Belarus

        Europe-Asia Studies 67(3), May,2015: 468-492

This article offers a contribution to the comparative democratisation literature by analysing the use of non-violent methods of resistance in a repressive political regime. It focuses on the role of youth movements in elections in Belarus. Elections present an opportunity for the engagement of youth in politics. The study examines how the youth movements Malady Front, Zubr and Belarusian Patriotic Youth Union sought to mobilise young people during the 2001 election. It analyses movement tactics and state action in response to youth mobilisation.

***1. Belarus-Politics and government 2. Belarus-Elections
   42147
                        
CHINA        
      -DECISION FOR WAR        
                        
4.    Quek, Kai
        Discontinuities in signaling behavior upon the decision for war: an analysis of China's prewar signaling behavior

        International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 15(2), May, 2015

There is always a time gap between the decision for war and its implementation. I exploit this time gap to study how the signaling of resolve changes after the decision for war is made, based on the wars that China fought since 1949. I study the series of signals that China sent after it had made its decisions for war in Korea (1950), India (1962) and Vietnam (1979), and compare them with the signals sent just before the decisions were made. I find patterns in Chinese prewar signaling that reflect how strategic incentives for the signaling of resolve change before and after the decision for war. The study generates theoretical expectations on discontinuities in signaling behavior upon the decision for war – an unexplored research area with direct policy implications.

***1. China-Decision for war 2. Indo-China war 1962 3. China-Korea war 1950 4. China-Vietnam war 1978

      42162
                        
      -DOMESTIC DIVISIONS        
                        
5.    Chen, Dean P
        Security, domestic divisions, and the KMT's Post-2008 ‘One China’ policy: a neoclassical realist analysis

        International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 15(2), May, 2015: 319-365

Why does Ma Ying-jeou pursue a China-tilting policy when US–PRC relations become more competitive after 2010? Indeed, the president's mainland policy has gone far beyond the strategic requirements to satisfy international pressures for a stable cross-strait relationship. According to neoclassical realism, domestic politics acts as ‘intervening variables’ through which systemic imperatives are translated into a state's foreign policy response. Based, in part, on this author's interviews in Taiwan, this paper contends that due to Taiwan's internal political divisions on the ‘one China’ issue, elected leaders strive for their own nation-building projects, which, in turn, generate policies that undermine Taiwan's national security. Since 2008, the KMT tries to reshape Taiwan's identity through the rehabilitation of the ROC as the legitimate ‘one China’. Though Ma's rapprochement with Beijing on the basis of the ‘1992 consensus’ has contributed to cross-strait stability, his embrace of a China-centric national identity has also placed the administration increasingly at odds with Taiwan's public which gave the KMT a resounding electoral defeat in Taiwan's local elections of November 2014. As Taipei becomes more aligned to the PRC, its security ties with America and Japan could be compromised.

***1. China-Domestic divisions 2. China-Foreign relations-USA 3. Taiwan-Mainland policy 4. One China policy 5. Taiwan-Foreign relations-USA
      42163

      -ECONOMIC POLICY-MIDDLE EAST        
                            
6.    Salman, Mohammad and Geeraerts, Gustaaf
        Strategic Hedging and China’s Economic Policy in the Middle East

        China Report 51 (2), May, 2015: 102-120

This study presents the strategic hedging framework as a way to trace the determinants of the foreign policies of hedging states. We use the case of Chinese energy security strategy in the Middle East as an illustrative case study. It first uses four criteria to establish that China’s energy security strategy in the Middle East is a strong example of strategic hedging behaviour. Then it examines the impact of oil production in the Middle East countries on the growth of Chinese economic relationships with these countries. The results of this study show clearly that oil production plays an important role in the Sino-Middle East relations. We find a positive relationship between oil production in Middle East countries, on the one hand, and the distribution and growth of China’s trade and investment with these countries, on the other hand. These results confirm that strategic hedging behaviour leads to developing China’s economic relations with the oil-producing countries in order to cover its growing needs for energy to support its economic growth. This article represents the first attempt to trace the impact of strategic hedging behaviour on the foreign policies of hedging states. Thus, it contributes to the support of the strategic hedging framework as a new theory in international relations.

***1. China-Economic policy-Middle East
     42129
                            
      -ECONOMIC RELATIONS-CAMBODIA        
                            
7.    Ciorciari, John D
        A Chinese model for patron–client relations? The Sino-Cambodian partnership

        International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 15(2), May, 2015: 245-278

Despite extensive economic ties and political engagement throughout Asia and sizable investment in some of the region's most vulnerable regimes, China has yet to develop a stable of devoted client states. This article argues that both strategic and normative factors militate against China's cultivation of strong patron–client pacts. The article then uses the case of Cambodia to illustrate these arguments, analyzing how that partnership has developed and its important limitations.

***1. China-Economic relations-Cambodia 2. China-Foreign policy-Cambodia 3. China-Political support-Cambodia
    42161
                            
      -ECONOMY        
                            
8.    Bebber, Robert
        Countersurge: A Better Understanding of China's Rise and U.S. Policy Goals in East Asia

        Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs 59(1), Winter, 2015: 49-61

Many experts raise concerns about the “rise of China” and the potential threat it presents to American interests. Indeed, the recent strategic pivot announced by U.S. leaders is designed to address these concerns. Yet what we are likely to see is not a rise of Chinese power, but a surge-a temporary situation of perhaps twenty to thirty years. Demographic, economic, and political factors will all combine to create a ceiling on Chinese power and ultimately cause it to decline. The United States needs to develop military capabilities that will prepare it for the coming strategic window, along with the economic and political initiatives that will enable it to influence events in the region.

***1. China-Economy 2. China-Military capabilities 3. USA-Defence policy-East Asia
       42177

9.    Cui, Yuming
        China’s exchange rate regime reform: Implications from the experiences of Japan, Korea and Taiwan

        China Economic Journal 8 (1), 2015: 1-17

This paper reviews the process of exchange rate regime reform of three economies: Japan, Korea and Taiwan, with emphasis on background, policies applied, and corresponding consequence in different periods. Lessons drawn from the experiences of these three economies are important and valuable for China’s ongoing exchange rate regime reform, although some could argue that China today is different from the three countries then. We argue that the Gradualism approach is the optimal option for RMB revaluation rather than the One-off approach. Follow-up monetary and fiscal policies are needed to maintain export and economic growth when the currency is being revaluated, but the timing and scale of policies are equally important. China’s exchange rate regime reform should be regarded as an integral component of a broad financial system reform rather than considered alone. In addition, an integrated financial market reform is a pre-condition for achieving smooth exchange rate regime reform. Last but not least, the policies for long-term economic structure adjustment and industry upgrading need to be prepared by China’s authority in order to respond to the possible adverse impact of RMB exchange rate region reform on its economy.

***1. China-Economy 2. China-Exchange rate regime 3. Taiwan-Exchange rate regime 4. Japan-Exchange rate regime 5. Korea-Exchange rate regime
42131
                            
10.    Yongding,Yu
        Understanding China's external imbalances

        China Economic Journal 8 (1), 2015: 40-54

The paper is intended to provide a comprehensive explanation of China’s external imbalances, which are characterized by current account surplus and financial account surplus. The thrust of the paper is that China’s current account surplus is not simply an effect of the savings gap. Rather, it is a result of complicated interactions among various factors in a dynamic fashion. Hence, to keep the current account surplus-to-GDP ratio at a rational level, the implementation of comprehensive policies that address all relevant factors at the same time as well as fundamental restructuring are necessary.

***1. China-Economy 2. China-Current account surplus 3. China-Export promotion
     42132
                            
      -MILITARY STRATEGY-JAPAN        
                            
11.    Yoshihara, Toshi
        Sino-Japanese Rivalry at Sea: How Tokyo Can Go Anti-Access on China

        Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs 59(1), Winter, 2015: 62-75

This article contends that as Japan weakens relative to China it must think creatively about blunting key components of China's military strategy, particularly in the maritime domain. To advance this argument, this study samples recent Japanese threat perceptions of China; assesses the growing Sino-Japanese military imbalance; illustrates some asymmetric responses that may help Japan exploit its geographic advantages while competing more effectively; and identifies the risks to the proposed countermoves against China's challenge. The bottom line is that if Japan hopes to stay in the game, it must employ its military power imaginatively, making the Asian seas and airspace less and less hospitable to Chinese forces as they turn seaward.

***1. China-Military strategy-Japan 2. China-Military imbalance-Japan 3. China-Anti access strategy-Japan
   42178

-OPEN GOVERNMENT INFORMATION REGULATIONS        
                        
12.    Rana, Renu
        China’s Information Disclosure Initiative: Assessing the Reforms

        China Report 51(2), May,2015: 129-143

This article examines the initiatives taken by the government of the People’s Republic of China towards ensuring government information transparency. The Open Government Information Regulations (OGI) which was adopted in 2007 is a landmark in the transparency reforms process in China. The analysis of this initiative and further reforms becomes vital as China has witnessed newly emerged emphasis on anti-corruption campaign and rule of law. Though these regulations were adopted in 2007 at national level, many reforms have been introduced in these regulations in terms of annual guidelines from time to time. This article analyses the origin and development of OGI; the scope of these regulations; the legal, political and structural problems obstructing the successful implementation of these regulations; and further reforms towards making China more open and transparent. This work also provides a comparative analysis of information disclosure initiatives in China and India.

***1. China-Open government information regulations 2. China-Government iInformation transparency
    42133
                        
GERMANY        
      -TERRORISM        
                        
13.    Pisoiu, Daniela
        Subcultural Theory Applied to Jihadi and Right-Wing Radicalization in Germany

        Terrorism and Political Violence 27(1), January-March,2015: 9-28

This article assesses the applicability of subcultural theories to individual cases of jihadi and Right-wing radicalization in Germany, with a focus on the individual initial situation and motivation for involvement. Within an overall qualitative research design, the article tests deviance/strain and Centre for Contemporary Cultural Studies (CCCS) subcultural theories against four jihadi and three Right-wing extremist cases. The findings show little support for the strain-based status frustration hypothesis, but confirm the illegitimate opportunity structure thesis; modified versions of the CCCS’ resistance, bricolage, and homology concepts; as well as some of the postmodern approaches to agency and cultural cross-fertilization. The jihadi and Right-wing radicals examined here are assertive and purposive agents, strategically using the rich cultural arsenal available in the mainstream and/or other subcultures, while at the same time being themselves influenced by contemporary mainstream preferences of style. The article discusses the implications of these findings for radicalization research and specific subcultural approaches. It argues for a greater focus on both individual agency and the (sub-)cultural context for an improved understanding of individual involvement in political violence.

***1. Germany-Terrorism 2. Germany-Jihadism
    42137
                        
IMMIGRATION POLICY        
                        
14.    Peters, Margaret E
        Open Trade, Closed Borders Immigration in the Era of Globalization

        World Politics 67(1), January 2015: 114-154
What explains variation in immigration policy, especially policy regulating low-skill workers? A common argument invokes prejudice against foreigners as an explanation for why nations close their economies to immigrants. This prejudice has been ubiquitous throughout history even as immigration policies changed. Social theories of this sort may be descriptively true but are not helpful in predicting variation in policy. Other scholars have turned to the role that native labor plays in protecting its interests against immigration, but they have not explained why labor is able to restrict immigration when it has not been able to restrict trade, even though open trade has wreaked as much, if not more, havoc on labor. A third group of scholars focuses on states' concerns about the fiscal costs of immigrants as an explanation for the changes in policy over time. While fiscal costs are likely to play a role, this argument cannot explain exclusion prior to the creation of the modern welfare state in the early twentieth century. Finally, a fourth group of scholars has examined the power of immigrants themselves. While immigrants clearly affect immigration policy  in democracies, they have never been a sufficiently large plurality of the polity to be able to change policy on their own, and they have less voice in autocracies where they can more easily be deported.

***1. Immigration policy 2. Cross national immigration policy 3. Trade policy
    42167
    
                            
INDIA        
      -ELECTIONS        
                            
15.    Jensenius, Francesca R
        Mired in Reservations: The Path-Dependent History of Electoral Quotas in India

        Journal of Asian Studies 74(1), February, 2015: 85-105

Since independence, India has had electoral quotas for Scheduled Castes (SCs, Dalits, “untouchables”). These quotas have been praised for empowering members of a deprived community, but have also been criticized for bringing to power SC politicians who are mere tools in the hands of the upper castes. Tracing the history of these quotas through four critical junctures, I show how a British attempt to strengthen their own control of India eventually resulted in one of the world's most extensive quota systems for minorities. The quota system was in the end a compromise between several political goals, and was not strongly supported by anyone. Also, while the quotas were designed to integrate SC politicians into mainstream politics, there was a subtle and gradual shift in the debate about them, to being about development for the SC community as such. This created a disjuncture between the design of the quota system and the expectation of what it would achieve. The case of quotas in India illustrates how policy choices often result from long path-dependent processes, how policy makers struggle with trade-offs when trying to design institutions, and also the power of expectations in shaping the perceptions of the outcomes of those institutions.

***1. India-Elections 2. India-Electoral Quotas 3. The Poona pact 4. Morle-Minto reforms
        42182
                            
      -FOREIGN RELATIONS-MONGOLIA        
                            
16.    Soni, Sharad K
        The ‘Third Neighbour’ Approach of Mongolia’s Diplomacy of External Relations: Effects on Relations between India and Mongolia

        India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs 71(1), March,2015: 37-52

While focusing on the ‘third neighbour’ approach of Mongolia’s diplomacy of external relations, this article seeks to examine the effects of this new approach on India–Mongolia relations. It delves into the evolution of Mongolia’s ‘third neighbour’ policy and its implementation into forging a mutually beneficial cooperation in diverse areas with such ‘third neighbour’ nations or a group of nations that could help balance Mongolia’s two geographic neighbours—Russia and China. The article argues that such third neighbours have been identified to bolster Mongolia’s development, invest, and encourage the democratic transition/consolidation that is under way. In the case of India, ever since it began to be considered as one of Mongolia’s third neighbours, their relationship has witnessed a sea change, that is, the bilateral relations turned into a comprehensive partnership. Contrary to the ordinary viewpoint, the argument here is that India remains an important country for Mongolia in both regional and international contexts, particularly in the context of India’s role in promoting a multi-polar security structure in Asia. The Mongolians concede India’s positive influence on them and desire that the strong cultural relationship based on Buddhist traditions between the two sides should be translated into a strategic partnership. This is more so because Mongolia’s proximity with India appears to be a significant factor to balance off the equation with China.

***1. India-Foreign relations-Mongolia 2. India-Uranium diplomacy-Mongolia 3. India-Third neighbour policy-Mongolia
       42160

                        
      -HISTORY OF PARTITION        
                        
17.    Gilmartin, David
        The Historiography of India's Partition: Between Civilization and Modernity

        Journal of Asian Studies 74(1), February, 2015: 23-41

More than sixty-five years after the partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947, controversy about partition, its causes and its effects, continues. Yet the emphases in these debates have changed over the years, and it is perhaps time, in the wake of India's recent elections, to take stock once again of how these debates have developed in the last several decades and where they are heading. What gives these controversies particular significance is that they are not just about that singular event, but about the whole trajectory of India's modern history, as interpreted through partition's lens-engaging academic historians, even as they continue to be deeply enmeshed in ongoing political conflict in South Asia, and, indeed, in the world more broadly.

***1. India-History of partition 2. India-Civilization 3. India-Cause of partition 4. India-Modernity
    42181
                        
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION        
      -UNITED NATIONS        
                        
18.    Monteleone,Carla
        Coalition building in the UN Security Council

        International Relations 29(1), March,2015: 45-68

Political coalitions in the international system are still understudied in International Relations theory. This article claims that the formation of and variations in coalitions in the international system are affected by changes in their bargaining power and bargaining environment related to the global leadership cycle and by long-term organisational changes of the international political system. Identifying the Security Council as the institution in which states are more likely to keep their systemic preferences at the institutional level, the article studies the presence, formation and change of coalitions in the international system by testing variations in the behaviour of the Security Council members in the period 1993–2012. To overcome methodological difficulties, it proposes to analyse sponsoring rather than voting behaviour. In the analysed period, the presence of a mutating dominant coalition, signs of potential coalitions in the making and an increase in participation and competition resulting from modifications in the organisational form of the international system are found.

***1. International Organization-United Nations 2. UN Security council 3. International Politics-Coalitions
    42134
                        
INTERNATIONAL POLITICS        
      -COALITIONS GOVERNMENT        
                        
19.    Knotz, Carlo and Lindvall, Johannes
        Coalitions and Compensation: The Case of Unemployment Benefit Duration

        Comparative Political Studies 48(5), April,2015: 586-615

This paper examines unemployment benefit reforms in twenty-five advanced democracies between the middle of the 1980s and the onset of the Great Recession in 2008. The paper’s main argument is that the type of government – coalition or single-party – has an effect on whether cutbacks in social benefits are combined with compensating measures that mitigate the negative effects of the cuts. We show empirically that when cuts in unemployment benefit duration were made by coalition governments, spending on training programs tended to increase, but when cuts in duration were made by single-party governments, training spending tended to decrease. This pattern suggests that coalition governments, but not single-party governments, use compensation mechanisms to build political support for labor market reforms.

***1. International Politics-Coalitions Government 2. Labor Market reform
    42136
  
                        
IRAN        
      -POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT        
                        
20.    Mahdavi, Paasha and Iran-resource-incumbency relationship
        Explaining the Oil Advantage: Effects of Natural Resource Wealth on Incumbent Reelection in Iran

        World Politics 67(2), April 2015: 226-267

Why does natural resource wealth prolong incumbency? Using evidence from parliamentary elections in the Islamic Republic of Iran, the author shows that natural resource revenues boost incumbent reelection rates because they are used to provide public or private goods to constituents, which incentivizes voters to reelect incumbents over challengers. To test this hypothesis, the author employs originally assembled data on five parliamentary elections in Iran (1992–2008) in longitudinal hierarchical regression analyses at the district and province levels. By leveraging Iran's mixed-member electoral system, he shows that the resource-incumbency mechanism works primarily in single-member districts with little evidence of an incumbency advantage for politicians in resource-rich multimember districts. Building on the rentier theory of natural resource wealth, the results suggest that voting for the incumbent is attributable to patronage and public goods distribution. The findings offer new insights into the understudied context of Iranian legislative elections, illustrate the mechanisms driving the relationship between resource wealth and incumbency advantage at the subnational level in a nondemocratic setting, and highlight the mediating effects of electoral institutions on the resource-incumbency relationship.

***1. Iran-Politics and government 2. Iran-Parliamentary election 1992-2008
   42168
                        
IRAQ        
      -INSURGENCY        
                        
21.    Braithwaite, Alex and Johnson, Shane D
        The Battle for Baghdad: Testing Hypotheses About Insurgency From Risk Heterogeneity, Repeat Victimization, and Denial Policing Approaches

        Terrorism and Political Violence 27(1), January-March,2015: 112-132

The Iraqi Insurgency (2003–2011) has commonly been characterized as demonstrating the tendency for violence to cluster and diffuse at the local level. Recent research has demonstrated that insurgent attacks in Iraq cluster in time and space in a manner similar to that observed for the spread of a disease. The current study employs a variety of approaches common to the scientific study of criminal activities to advance our understanding of the correlates of observed patterns of the incidence and contagion of insurgent attacks. We hypothesize that the precise patterns will vary from one place to another, but that more attacks will occur in areas that are heavily populated, where coalition forces are active, and along road networks. To test these hypotheses, we use a fishnet to build a geographical model of Baghdad that disaggregates the city into more than 3000 grid cell locations. A number of logistic regression models with spatial and temporal lags are employed to explore patterns of local escalation and diffusion. These models demonstrate the validity of arguments under each of three models but suggest, overall, that risk heterogeneity arguments provide the most compelling and consistent account of the location of insurgency. In particular, the results demonstrate that violence is most likely at locations with greater population levels, higher density of roads, and military garrisons.

***1. Iraq-Insurgency 2. Iraq-Risk heterogeneity
    42141
                        
IRELAND        
      -TERRORISM        
                        
22.    Asal, Victor et. at.
        Killing Range: Explaining Lethality Variance within a Terrorist Organization

        Journal of Conflict Resolution 59(3), April, 2015: 401-427
This paper presents an analysis of the Provisional Irish Republican Army's (PIRA) brigade level behavior during the Northern Ireland Conflict (1970-1998) and identifies the organizational factors that impact a brigade's lethality as measured via terrorist attacks. Key independent variables include levels of technical expertise, cadre age, counter-terrorism policies experienced, brigade size, and IED components and delivery methods. We find that technical expertise within a brigade allows for careful IED usage, which significantly minimizes civilian casualties (a specific strategic goal of PIRA) while increasing the ability to kill more high value targets with IEDs. Lethal counter-terrorism  events also significantly affect a brigade's likelihood of killing both civilians and high-value targets but in different ways. Killing PIRA members significantly decreases IED fatalities but also significantly decreases the possibility of zero civilian IED-related deaths in a given year. Killing innocent Catholics in a Brigade's county significantly increases total and civilian IED fatalities. Together the results suggest the necessity to analyze dynamic situational variables that impact terrorist group behavior at the sub-unit level.

***1. Ireland-Terrorism 2. Northern Ireland conflict 3. Provisional Irish Republican Army
      42165
    
                            
JAPAN        
      -ECONOMIC HISTORY        
                            
23.    Balatchandirane, G
        Smell of the Soil: Peasant Diaries of Prewar Japan

        China Report 51(2), May, 2015: 87-101

For long, the study of Japanese economic history of the prewar period has been colored by the dominant view of the modernisation economists who clearly held an anti-Marxist or a non-Marxist approach. One casualty of this approach has been the neglect of the rich micro level studies and data that are available on this period in the Japanese language. The standard view of agricultural development in Japan tends to ignore or gloss over the various struggles and difficulties the poor peasant went through. This article highlights the availability of diaries and other records left by the poor or the tenant farmers of the Meiji and Taisho periods. It shows how a study of these, along with the macro picture presented by the modernisation economists, completes the canvas and brings one closer to the realities of the prewar period. It raises questions about the image of a smooth and painless transition to modernisation that has been holding centre stage in the discourse about Japan for so long.

***1. Japan-Economic history 2. Japan-Agriculture development
      42130
                            
KOREA        
      -FREE TRADE AGREEMENT-USA        
                            
24.    Seo, Jungkun
        Security ties or electoral connections? The US Congress and the Korea–US Free Trade Agreement, 2007–2011

        International Relations of the Asia-pacific 15(2), May, 2015: 217-244

Conventional wisdom is that trade policy is often guided by geopolitical security considerations. A growing body of research addresses the security–trade linkage as a plausible cause for executive negotiations over the Korea–US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) in 2007. Yet, the approval of a trade deal with the Asian ally by America's legislature in 2011 features not only ‘security ties’ but also ‘electoral connections’. This paper seeks to examine the question of whether alliance relationships would inevitably translate into domestic commitments. Bringing domestic politics into consideration, this article also fills the gap in the literature on Congress-focused research of the KORUS FTA and sheds light on how lawmakers strike a balance between the principle of US foreign policy and the reality of conflicting domestic interests.

***1. Korea-Free trade agreement-USA 2. Korea-Foreign policy-USA 3. KORUS FTA
      42158
                            
      -FTA POLICY        
            
25.    Im, Koonsam
        Korean exchange rate and FTAs under the Roh Moo-hyun administration

        International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 15(2), May, 2015: 367-396

The Korean government's engagement in FTAs since the late 1990s has been enthusiastic. As of 2012, the Korean government concluded FTAs with small trading partners such as Chile, Singapore, EFTA, ASEAN, India, Peru, and Turkey, and major counterparts such as the European Union (EU) and the United States as well. However, the degree of each of the Korean administrations' engagement in FTAs has shown discernible differences: While the Kim Dae-jung administration passively engaged in FTAs, the Roh Moo-hyun administration was proactive in that engagement. What explains the shift from the Kim administration's passive FTA policy to the Roh administration's comprehensive multi-track FTA policy? This article argues that the appreciation of the Korean won since 2001 made Korean exporters lose their price competitiveness in the global market, thereby forcing the Roh administration to offset Korean exporters' lost price competitiveness by formulating a comprehensive multi-track FTA policy, with huge side payments for politically sensitive import-competing sectors.

***1. Korea-FTA policy 2. India-Free trade agreement-Korea 3. Korea-Free trade agreement-East Asia
    42164
                        
KYRGYZSTAN        
      -POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT        
                        
26.    Satybaldieva, Elmira
        Political Capital, Everyday Politics and Moral Obligations: Understanding the Political Strategies of Various Elites and the Poor in Kyrgyzstan

        Europe-Asia Studies 67(3), May,2015: 370-387

Using the Bourdieusian framework to analyse the nature of social stratification in rural Kyrgyzstan, this article examines how local politics is strategised by different groups in the social field. The article suggests two modifications to the Bourdieusian framework to reflect better the nature of local politics. First, despite lacking significant capital holdings, poor groups undertake everyday resistance and mediated politics. Second, intellectual and traditional elites engage in the politics of ‘doing the right thing’, motivated by a sense of moral obligation. The article provides a critical challenge to the concept of clan and elite-led politics which is often used to explain events in Central Asia.

***1. Kyrgyzstan-Politics and government
    42145
                        
27.    Gottlieb, Jessica
        The Logic of Party Collusion in a Democracy: Evidence from Mali

        World Politics 67(1), January 2015: 1-36

A credible opposition is necessary for democratic accountability. However, in a multiparty democracy, a credible opposition may fail to emerge when it is in the strategic interest of political parties to collude rather than compete, effectively extinguishing all credible opposition. The author argues that illicit collusion among parties on a representative council is more likely when all viable parties win seats and are thus able to enter into a self-binding commitment to jointly engage in misconduct without risk of exposure. Conversely, when at least one party fails to win representation on the council, there is a credible opposition with the incentive and ability to threaten exposure of rent seeking among council members. The theory is tested using a regression discontinuity design where the electoral threshold to win a single seat is, within a narrow band, an exogenous determinant of whether or not there is an out-party or credible opposition. Exploiting the fact that Mali's decentralization produces within-country variation in both electoral and governance outcomes, the author uses data from commune council elections alongside local-level public goods provision as a measure of rent seeking. Poorer public goods provision is indeed more likely when all political parties in a district win seats on the council. To show that collusion is the mechanism driving this relationship, the author tests several observable implications in the data and uses qualitative evidence as illustration. This examination of when it is in the strategic interest of parties to engage in uncompetitive behavior contributes to the literature on when elections fail to produce democratic accountability.

***1. Mali-Politics and government 2. Mali-Democracy 3. Mali-Political parties
   42166                
                           
MIDDLE EAST        
      -GULF MONARCHIES        
                            
28.    Berti, Benedetta and Guzansky, Yoel
        Gulf Monarchies in a Changing Middle East: Is Spring Far Behind?

        Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs 59(1), Winter 2015: 35-48

More than three after the beginning of the Arab Awakening, it appears that the upheavals have, by and large, left the Gulf monarchies intact. While several dictators have fallen— from Ben Ali in Tunisia, Mubarak in Egypt and Gaddafi in Libya to Saleh in Yemen— monarchies across the region have shown considerable survival skills. But is this purported resilience likely to last even as the Arab Awakening continues to shake the Middle East and North African (MENA) region, or are the monarchs next in line now that the “presidents for life” have met their demise? This article explores the various ways in which Gulf monarchies have experienced political and social mobilizations associated with the Arab Awakening and then analyzes the characteristics that have allowed these countries to weather the storm, focusing on both pre-existing structural and cultural factors, as well as political responses to the unfolding regional protests.

***1. Middle East-Gulf monarchies 2. Middle East-political and social mobilizations
    42176
                            
ROMANIA        
      -POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT        
                            
29.    Serban, Mihaela
        The Exceptionalism of Housing in the Ideology and Politics of Early Communist Romania (1945–1965)

        Europe-Asia Studies 67(3), May,2015: 443-467

The article analyses the exceptionalism of housing during the early communist period in Romania, in particular the extent to which the regime's ambivalent policies regarding housing undermined the overall political and ideological goal of dismantling private property. Focusing on appropriations, restitutions and new construction in the city of Timi¸oara and the surrounding region, the article emphasises conflicting and inconsistent policies regarding housing and the consequences of these policies. Housing's double meaning as home and asset further complicated the overall ideological mission of denaturalising bourgeois private property, and provided a basis for the continuing relevance of pre-communist legal ideologies and consciousness of property rights during this period. The article is based on documentary and archival research conducted in the city of Timi¸oara, Romania, in 2007–2008.

***1. Romania-Politics and government 2. Romania-Private property
   42146
                            
RUSSIA        
      -DOMESTIC GAS MARKET        
                            
30.    Henderson, James
        Competition for Customers in the Evolving Russian Gas Market

        Europe-Asia Studies 67(3), May,2015: 345-369
Significant change is occurring in the Russian gas sector as the arrival of new entrants is creating the conditions for a gradual evolution of the domestic gas market towards a more competitive environment based upon the commercial realities facing the Russian gas industry. Non-Gazprom producers are increasingly adopting more aggressive marketing strategies to ensure that they create a market for their expanding gas production in a market where demand is constrained. State-controlled Gazprom has yet to demonstrate any significant response to this competitive threat, implying that its position could be significantly undermined over the next few years.

***1. Russia-Domestic gas market 2. Russia-Gas industry
    42144
                            
 
SOUTH AMERICA        
      -POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT        
                            
31.    Grauer, Ryan
        Moderating Diffusion: Military Bureaucratic Politics and the Implementation of German Doctrine in South America, 1885–1914

        World Politics 67(2), April 2015: 268-312

How do military ideas, and military doctrines in particular, spread through the international system? This article extends extant work on military diffusion by exploring why some states, after deciding to adopt another's innovative warfighting system, fail to implement it. The author argues that for states to successfully implement a military doctrine developed abroad, much information about the unobservable aspects of the warfighting system is needed. States vary in their capacity to acquire the necessary knowledge because they face differing levels of resistance to military diffusion within their armed forces. Powerful groups within the military that are opposed to such adoptions are likely to use their influence to press for policies and bureaucratic maneuvers that constrain information flows between innovating states and their own state and consequently inhibit implementation and diffusion of military doctrines. Therefore successful implementation of foreign military doctrines can be expected when states face minimal resistance within their militaries, and moderated or failed implementation can be expected when opposition is more significant. A provisional test of the argument is conducted through an assessment of Argentina, Brazil, and Chile's attempts to implement the German military doctrine at the turn of the twentieth century.

***1. South America-Politics and government 2. South America-German military doctrine 3. South America-Military bureaucratic politics
      42169
                            
SWEDEN        
      -WAR AGAINST TERRORISM        
                            
32.    Strandh, Veronica and Eklund, Niklas
        Swedish Counterterrorism Policy: An Intersection Between Prevention and Mitigation?

        Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(5), May 2015: 359-379

he aim of this article is to analyze how and why Swedish counterterrorism policy has changed since 2001. It raises the issue of how counterterrorism interacts with other factors on the governmental agenda, which priorities are made, and how these can be understood. Although much empirical evidence on the real political influence of emergent interagency networks is still lacking in the case of Sweden, an attempt is made here to analyze the importance of focusing events. In the light of the Swedish national strategy for counterterrorism, the article analyzes the content of annual reports from the Swedish Security Service. The article also explores linkages between the counterterrorism and crisis management literatures, and argues that the reassuring overtones in Swedish counterterrorism policy of late can be understood not only as the result of changes in threat perception and policy, but also in institutionalchange.

***1. Sweden-war against terrorism 2. Sweden-Counter-terrorism policy 3. Swedish Security Service
      42174
                            
SYRIA        
      -TERRORISM        
                            
33.    Klausen, Jytte
        Tweeting the Jihad: Social Media Networks of Western Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq

        Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(1), January,2015: 1-22
Social media have played an essential role in the jihadists? operational strategy in Syria and Iraq, and beyond. Twitter in particular has been used to drive communications over other social media platforms. Twitter streams from the insurgency may give the illusion of authenticity, as a spontaneous activity of a generation accustomed to using their cell phones for self-publication, but to what extent is access and content controlled? Over a period of three months, from January through March 2014, information was collected from the Twitter accounts of 59 Western-origin fighters known to be in Syria. Using a snowball method, the 59 starter accounts were used to collect data about the most popular accounts in the network-at-large. Social network analysis on the data collated about Twitter users in the Western Syria-based fighters points to the controlling role played by feeder accounts belonging to terrorist organizations in the insurgency zone, and by Europe-based organizational accounts associated with the banned British organization, Al Muhajiroun, and in particular the London-based preacher, Anjem Choudary.

***1. Syria-Terrorism 2. Syria-Jihad 3. Syria-Western foreign fighters 4. Iraq-Western foreign fighters 5. Social media-jihad
    42151
    
34.    Nilsson, Marco
        Foreign Fighters and the Radicalization of Local Jihad: Interview Evidence from Swedish Jihadists

        Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(5), May 2015: 343-358

Modern jihadism has experienced two distinct crises. The present study analyzes recent developments in jihadism, which can be seen in connection with efforts to solve the latest recruitment crisis of global jihad, and is based on comparative interviews with eight Swedish jihadists defined as foreign fighters. The study identifies three new trends evident in the interviews comparing jihadists active in Syria with those who fought in Afghanistan and Bosnia: socialization to global jihad, normalization of jihad, and an increasing use of the doctrine of takfir (i.e., ex-communication). This can be described as indicating the radicalization of local jihad, as the territorially based jihad, championed by Abdullah Azzam, and the global jihad of Osama bin Laden meet in the territorial realities of Syria and Iraq.

***1. Syria-Terrorism 2. Iraq-Terrorism 3. Syria-Swedish jihadists 4. Iraq-Swedish jihadists
     42173
                            
35.    Rich, Ben and Conduit ,Dara
        The Impact of Jihadist Foreign Fighters on Indigenous Secular-Nationalist Causes: Contrasting Chechnya and Syria

        Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(2), February,2015: 113-131

Jihadist foreign fighters have become common in civil conflicts in Muslim countries. While research exists on the impact they have upon returning home, less attention has been given to their influence on the opposition cause that they mobilize in support of. This article looks at the impact that jihadist foreign fighters on the Chechen and Syrian resistance causes, evaluating their influence on oppositional cohesion and ideology, domestic and international perceptions of the movements, and on governmental narratives regarding the conflicts the foreign fighters engage in. It is concluded that foreign fighters have overwhelmingly damaged the Chechen and Syrian opposition movements, making the likelihood of opposition success more remote.

***1. Syria-Terrorism 2. Chechnya-Terrorism 3. Syria-Civil conflicts 4. Chechnya-Civil conflicts
    42154

TAIWAN        
      -DEMOCRACY        
                            
36.    Rowen, Ian
        Inside Taiwan's Sunflower Movement: Twenty-Four Days in a Student-Occupied Parliament, and the Future of the Region

        Journal of Asian Studies 74(1), February, 2015: 5-21
“Say goodbye to Taiwan,” wrote political scientist John Mearsheimer in a widely read article in the March-April 2014 issue of The National Interest. Threatened by China's rising economic might and abandoned by a weakening United States, one of Asia's most vibrant democracies was facing, in his “realist” analysis, an almost inevitable annexation via economic if not military force. “Time,” he wrote, “is running out for the little island coveted by its gigantic, growing neighbor.” But only days after publication, on March 18, activists and armchair analysts alike said hello to a new reality.

***1. Taiwan-Democracy 2. Taiwan-Sunflower movement
       42180

        
TERRORISM        
                            
37.    Fahey, Susan and LaFree, Gary
        Does Country-Level Social Disorganization Increase Terrorist Attacks?

        Terrorism and Political Violence 27(1), January-March,2015: 81-111

This study examines the effects of a measure of country-level social disorganization on levels of terrorist attacks and fatalities in 101 countries from 1981 to 2010. We measure social disorganization as the presence of state instability: revolutionary and ethnic war, adverse regime change, and genocide. The classic social disorganization perspective posits that individuals experiencing these types of rapid social change will be freed from the institutional and informal restraints that bind them to society, and keep them conforming to social norms and laws. We examine the extent to which this reasoning applies to the number of terrorist attacks and fatalities from terrorist attacks occurring in countries. To control for the possibility that better functioning states are better able to prevent terrorist attacks, we include two measures of state capacity. We find that controlling for state capacity and a wide variety of other variables, social disorganization is consistently associated with increases in terrorist attacks and fatalities. We consider implications of the results for future research and policy.

***1. Terrorism 2. Breakdown theory
   42140
                            
38.    Hegemann, Hendrik and Kahl, Martin
        Constructions of Effectiveness and the Rationalization of Counterterrorism Policy: The Case of Biometric Passports

        Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(3), March,2015: 199-218

This article argues that counterterrorism effectiveness is a distinct, discursive construction that politicians use to offer a rationalization of measures adopted under conditions of inherent uncertainty. Even in the face of multiple limits of knowability, decision makers need to offer “rational” justifications complying with persisting expectations of “evidence-based” policy and sound deliberation in modern societies. This article develops a new perspective on the political role of counterterrorism effectiveness highlighting the symbolic importance of knowledge claims and prevailing standards of modern rationality. It illustrates its arguments through a case study on the justification of biometric passports as an effective counterterrorist tool.

***1. Terrorism 2. Counterterrorism
   42150
                            
39.    Hsu, Henda Y and Apel,Robert
        A Situational Model of Displacement and Diffusion Following the Introduction of Airport Metal Detectors

        Terrorism and Political Violence 27(1), January-March,2015: 29-52

Much of the discourse surrounding counterterrorism centers on the inevitability of displacement, or the substitution of another form of terrorist attack in place of the one that has been thwarted. Yet a longstanding tradition of research in situational crime prevention finds that displacement is far from inevitable, and often depends crucially on the specific features of the incidents in question. In fact, crime prevention efforts are often followed by a “diffusion of benefits” (i.e., crime reductions) to incidents, groups, or locations that were not the intended target of the intervention. The current study examines various forms of displacement and diffusion in response to airport metal detectors among terrorist groups that had been involved in the perpetration of aviation attacks prior to their implementation. Using data from the Global Terrorism Database, the findings from interrupted time series models suggest a complex set of displacement and diffusion effects with respect to alternative attack modes, target types, and weapon usage.

***1. Terrorism 2. Airport security 3. Homeland security
   42138
 
                    
40.    Ilbiz, Ethem and Curtis, Benjamin L
        Trendsetters, Trend Followers, and Individual Players: Obtaining Global Counterterror Actor Types from Proscribed Terror Lists

        Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(1), January,2015: 39-61

This article seeks to conceptualize global counterterror actor types by examining the designated terrorist organizations lists of six countries; the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Russia, and China. It is argued that these countries should be placed into one of three distinct categories: Trendsetters, Trend Followers, and Individual Players. Being able to classify countries according to these categories is important for global policymakers. It raises awareness of the differences between countries, and emphasizes that ?one-fits-all? policies are inappropriate and have little chance of achieving global endorsement.

***1. Terrorism 2. Terrorist organizations
   42153

41.    Kenney, Michael
        Cyber-Terrorism in a Post-Stuxnet World

        Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs 59(1), Winter, 2015: 111-128

Recent cyber-attacks such as Stuxnet and Anonymous’ increasingly aggressive digital activism have rekindled fears that cyber-terrorism is an imminent threat. However, the concept remains poorly understood. Confusion over cyber-terrorism stems, in part, from recent attempts to stretch the concept to include hacktivism and terrorists’ use of the Internet to facilitate conventional terrorism. Although the United States and other countries have experienced thousands of cyberattacks in recent years, none have risen to the level of cyber-terrorism. This article seeks to dial down the rhetoric on cyber-terrorism by explaining how it differs from cyber-attacks, cyber-warfare, hacktivism, and terrorists’ use of the Internet. The most immediate online threat from non-state terrorists lies in their ability to exploit the Internet to raise funds, research targets, and recruit supporters rather than engage in cyber-terrorism. Cyber-terrorism may well occur in the future, but for now online crime, hacktivism, and cyber-warfare are more pressing virtual dangers.

***1. Terrorism 2. Cyber-Terrorism 3. SCADA systems
   42179

42.    Orsini, Alessandro
        Are Terrorists Courageous? Micro-Sociology of Extreme Left Terrorism

        Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(3), March,2015: 179-198

This article contests the affirmation—based on common sense—according to which terrorists simply need courage. The typical terrorist act can be considered part of the sociological category known as “vile violence” that is the act of striking out at a victim after having placed him or her in a desperate situation that does not allow for any escape. This article is based on primary and secondary sources, such as the analysis of thirty-five homicides committed in Italy by six terrorist units of the extreme left; interviews with extreme left terrorists; interviews with victims of extreme left terrorists; autobiographies of extreme left terrorists; autobiographies of victims of extreme left terrorists; video interviews of extreme left terrorists; and written statements of the investigating magistrates.

***1. Terrorism 2. Extreme left terrorism
     42149
                    
43.    Parkin, William S and Freilich, Joshua D
        Routine Activities and Right-Wing Extremists: An Empirical Comparison of the Victims of Ideologically- and Non-Ideologically-Motivated Homicides Committed by American Far-Rightists

Terrorism and Political Violence 27(1), January-March,2015: 182-203
This study examines whether Criminology's Routine Activities Theory (RAT) and related Lifestyle Theory (LST) can account for variation between the attributes of victims of fatal ideologically motivated attacks (akin to terrorism) and the victims of non-ideologically motivated homicide incidents committed by far-Right extremists in the United States. This article makes four contributions. First, we empirically test Criminology theory in the context of terrorism by using routine activities to devise four core hypotheses to explain differences between the two types of victims. Second, our investigation uniquely includes a non-terrorist comparison group (i.e., victims of homicides committed by extremists for personal reasons like greed). Third, our study focuses on ideological victimization. Terrorism researchers have usually ignored victims because of the  difficulty in accessing the necessary data. Finally, we also make a methodological contribution by showing that criminology can build upon the terrorism literature by utilizing open-sources. Using data from the Extremist Crime Database (ECDB), the results of a multivariate analysis partially supported the hypotheses, showing that RAT and LST offer empirically supported theoretical constructs that have the ability to differentiate between ideological and non-ideological homicides.

***1. Terrorism 2. USA-Far-right extremists 3. Routine activities theory
     42143
    

44.    Perry, Simon and Hasisi, Badi
        Rational Choice Rewards and the Jihadist Suicide Bomber

        Terrorism and Political Violence 27(1), January-March,2015: 53-80

Suicide terrorism is the most violent and horrifying form of terrorism in the world today. This kind of terrorism causes many fatalities and can throw an entire nation into a state of panic. We usually attribute this kind of terrorism to altruistic motivation, assuming that bombers are willing to sacrifice themselves for a higher cause. The current study uses the criminological theory of Rational Choice to analyze the motivation of jihadist suicide terrorism. By reviewing the religious, personal, and social incentives, we demonstrate that even those who kill themselves in suicide attacks, which are seemingly examples of irrational or altruistic behavior, do so while considering future, self-gratifying benefits. Since this self-destructive behavior is mostly driven not by altruistic motivation but by the anticipation of costs and benefits, we find that there is no fundamental difference between the perpetrators’ motivations and those of other criminals; both groups are committed to maximizing self-gratifying, beneficial behavior.

***1. Terrorism 2. Suicide bomber 3. Rational choice theory
    42139

45.    Plakoudas, Spyridon
        Strategy in Counterinsurgency: A Distilled Approach

        Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(2), February,2015: 132-145

How does an established state authority respond to an insurgency? How does such an authority plan and carry out its struggle to counter an armed non-state actor and why? The issue of strategy in counterinsurgency (COIN) remains a rather contentious subject and several practitioners and theorists on COIN have prescribed various remedies to the same problem. This article offers a re-evaluation of the concept of strategy in COIN and outlines the practices and mentalities that counterinsurgents should adopt (and avoid) to successfully counter an insurgency.

***1. Terrorism 2. Counterinsurgency 3. Counterinsurgents
  42155
                        
46.    San, Marion Van and Syria-Jihad
        Striving in the Way of God: Justifying Jihad by Young Belgian and Dutch Muslims

        Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(5), May 2015: 328-342
Since March 2013, the news has been dominated by young Muslims from European countries leaving for Syria to join the armed struggle against the Assad regime. This is especially remarkable in light of the fact that it would appear that, until very recently, European foreign fighters were far and few between. The armed struggle is a topic that is widely discussed among young Muslims on social media such as Facebook. During the research on which this article is based, I analyzed conversations between young Muslims on Facebook and also conducted interviews with a number of them. The key question was: Why is it that so many young people use social media to profess their willingness to sacrifice their lives in armed struggle while at the same time most of them are not prepared to turn their words into deeds? Despite all the media reports, the fact remains that of the large number of young Muslims who are potentially ready to go into battle, the vast majority prefer to stay at home for the time being. When I confronted the participants in these discussions with this inconsistency they offered a number of reasons as to why martyrdom was not yet granted to them. The way in which these considerations shape their lives and the role played by their religious convictions form the subject of this article.

***1. Terrorism 2. Syria-European foreign fighters
   42172

   
47.    Spaaij, Ramón and Hamm, Mark S
        Key Issues and Research Agendas in Lone Wolf Terrorism

        Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(3), March,2015: 167-178

This article builds on recent contributions to the academic literature on lone wolf terrorism to critically examine key issues that are germane to the current state of play in this field of study. It finds that, overall, the recent academic literature still suffers from considerable problems regarding quality and rigor, including definitional, conceptual, methodological, and inference issues. By providing a critique of these issues, the article attempts to advance the scholarly debate on lone wolf terrorism and inspire greater dialogue and collaboration between scholars. Directions for future research are also outlined.

***1. Terrorism 2. Lone wolf terrorism
 42148
                            
UGANDA        
      -POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT        
                            
48.    Carlson, Elizabeth
        Ethnic Voting and Accountability in Africa: A Choice Experiment in Uganda

        World Politics 67(2), April 2015: 353-385

The strong support that African presidents retain among voters of their own ethnicity, despite clear evidence of shirking and corruption, has prompted numerous empirical investigations into whether an incumbent's ethnicity or performance is more important to African voters. The model of vote choice underlying almost all of these studies is additive and implies that either coethnicity or good performance can increase a candidate's vote share. However, there is little theoretical justification for such a model. In the dominant theory of ethnic voting in Africa, coethnicity is a signal of better outcomes, indicating that ethnicity and performance are not separate considerations. Using an experiment that is designed to determine how Ugandan voters make choices, the author shows that the effects of coethnicity and good performance interact: neither attribute increases support for a candidate in the absence of the other. Though previous analyses indicate that, all else being equal, voters always prefer coethnics, this study demonstrates that coethnics only have an advantage when they are not shirkers. Additionally, though previous studies indicate that voters always prefer good performers, this analysis shows that voters are indifferent to the performance of non-coethnic candidates. The article provides evidence that this pattern is in fact a result of voters' beliefs that they will only receive future goods from coethnics, making a demonstrated ability to provide such goods relevant for the electability of coethnic candidates, but not for non-coethnics. Since a large number of African voters do not share the ethnicity of their incumbent, this finding has troubling implications for accountability of African leaders.

***1. Uganda-Politics and government 2. Uganda-Election
  42170
                            
USA        
      -CAMPAIGN AGAINST INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM        
                            
49.    Ceccoli, Stephen and Bing, John
        Explaining Divergent Attitudes Toward Lethal Drone Strikes

        Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(2), February,2015: 146-166
Although lethal drone strikes have become a central component of the U.S. campaign against international terrorism, the program remains a low salience issue with considerable bi-partisan consensus and a supportive U.S. general public. This article explains American attitudes toward lethal drone strikes by testing arguments based on partisanship and ideology, core values and abstract beliefs, and elite cues. Results suggest that respondent core values and governmental cues offer important insights. Consequently, the political environment under certain conditions may not frame important issues in such a way that the general public is likely to gain a knowledgeable understanding of the alternatives.

***1. USA-Campaign against international terrorism 2. USA-Lethal drone strikes
 42156
 
                      
      -FOREIGN POLICY        
                            
50.    Skonieczny, Amy
        Playing partners: Expectation, entanglement, and language games in US foreign policy

        International Relations 29(1), March,2015: 69-95

In this article, I argue that seemingly ‘un-noteworthy’ interactions between states can demonstrate the significance of language for social relationships and foreign policy partnerships. Using language game analysis, I apply Peter Howard’s four-stage model to the case of the US–Turkish Economic Partnership Commission’s proposal for qualified industrial zones shortly after 9/11 and examine how the expectations for enhancing partnership are shaped and at times dashed through the language used among a network of actors. A language game analysis provides an explanation for how actors’ expectations rise and fall and provides an understanding of the maintenance, enhancement, and dismantling of state relationships in a social and practice-centered context. I utilize author interview data as well as texts from newspapers, speeches, and organizations to show how partnership between allies is vulnerable to social expectations signaled in and through the common language they both hold.

***1. USA-Foreign policy 2. USA-Economic partnership-Turkey
    42135
                            
      -FOREIGN POLICY-ASIA        
                            
51.    Murray, Williamson and Mansoor, Peter
        U.S. Grand Strategy in the 21st Century: The Case for a Continental Commitment

        Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs 59(1), Winter 2015: 19-34

The history of great power conflicts waged by maritime/island powers clearly shows the criticality of supporting continental allies with a ground force commitment. Now is the time to establish a credible series of alliances in Europe and Asia—even though it is a moment of economic retrenchment and great power peace. These alliances need not be costly, but will provide deterrence in the near term and a hedge in the long run against future great power conflict—conflicts that will be waged not just in the air, on the seas, and in cyberspace, but on land as well.

***1. USA-Foreign policy-Asia 2. USA-Defense policy-Asia 3. The Peloponnesian War 4. The Napoleonic Wars
 42175
                            
      -STRATEGY AGAINST AL QAEDA        
                            
52.    McIntosh, Christopher
        Counterterrorism as War: Identifying the Dangers, Risks, and Opportunity Costs of U.S. Strategy Toward Al Qaeda and Its Affiliates

        Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(1), January,2015: 23-38

The U.S. war on Al Qaeda is well into its second decade?why has this particular conflict been so difficult to end? This article argues it is not due to the strategic acumen of Al Qaeda, but because of the problems intrinsic to relying on war as the framework for U.S. counterterrorism policy. The normal means of ending wars are complicated with a terrorist enemy and at odds with strategies that have historically had success at the end stages of counterterror campaigns. Continuing along the current path risks an ongoing war the United States will likely neither win nor fully end.

***1. USA-Strategy against al qaeda 2. USA-Counterterrorism policy
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      -TERRORISM        
                        
53.    Chermak, Steven and Gruenewald, Jeffrey A
        Laying a Foundation for the Criminological Examination of Right-Wing, Left-Wing, and Al Qaeda-Inspired Extremism in the United States

        Terrorism and Political Violence 27(1), January-March,2015: 133-159

Despite several overlaps between crime and terrorism, criminological examinations of terrorism to date have been limited. To fill this gap in the research, we examine several individual and contextual socio-demographic characteristics of a diverse sample of extremists operating in the United States who have committed violent crimes. In addition, we provide a comparative analysis to explain and understand differences between extremists who have committed violent crimes while active in either far-Right, far-Left (including environmental and animal rights extremists), or Al Qaeda and affiliated movements. To assess the impact of external factors on the nature of domestic extremist violence, we also comparatively examine these three types of domestic extremists before and after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. We find several similarities across domestic extremists but many important suspect- and county-level differences as well. We end the paper with suggestions for future research that could extend the criminological study of terrorism.

***1. USA-Terrorism 2. USA-Al Qaeda
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      -WAR AGAINST TERRORISM        
                        
54.    Cragin, R Kim
        Semi-Proxy Wars and U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy

        Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 38(5), May 2015: 311-327

On 4 February 2014, Al Qaeda leaders in Pakistan (aka Al Qaeda Central) repudiated Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq. Ayman al-Zawahiri declared that al-Baghdadi and his newly formed Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were no longer part of Al Qaeda's organization and Al Qaeda Central could not be held responsible for ISIL's behavior. It represents the first time that Al Qaeda Central has renounced an affiliate publicly. The announcement was driven by months of fighting between ISIL and Jabhat al-Nusra, another Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria. In fact, in Syria, Al Qaeda fighters are competing against each other for influence, as well as against other opposition groups, the Syrian regime, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iraqi militiamen, and Lebanese Hezbollah. This chaotic, semi-proxy war is unlike any previous problem encountered, made even more challenging by the limited U.S. presence on-the-ground. More worrisome, this semi-proxy war also has spread beyond Syria. Similar dynamics have emerged in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon to a certain extent. This article argues that these dynamics necessitate a twist in U.S. counterterrorism strategy.

***1. USA-War against Terrorism 2. USA-Counter-terrorism staregy 3. Al Qaeda 4. Islamic state in Iraq
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